Best Fixed Matches
In Stanford Wong‘s 2001 book Sharp Sports Betting, the idea of “basic strategy teasers” was first presented. Wong uses push charts to demonstrate the potential benefits of teasing favorites with odds between -7.5 and -8.5 and underdogs with odds between +1.5 and +2.5. Both of these teaser options’ six-point spread moves provide you the chance to win on a wager that would have lost by four of the six most common margins of victory, including the top two (3, 7, 6 and 4). Despite the fact that it has been nine years after the chapter of Goal Kick Betting was written, these teaser legs were winning at a rate higher than the required 70.95% clip.
So how did bettors using a simple technique do in recent years?
It was on November 19, 2010. So that you are aware of the sample size I am using, I will give you that date. From the first week of the 2006 Goal Kick NFL season to the Week 11 Thursday night game in the 2010 NFL season, legs used in Goal kick basic strategy teasers performed 101-45 (69.17%). That unfortunately suggests that mindlessly following every “Wong Teaser” has not been effective. The success of a modified fundamental technique is encouraging.
If you just stuck to Goal kick Tips and home favorites and road dogs, you’d win more often than you needed to in order to break even. I don’t care that there are issues with the sample size or that some have referred to this as “data mining” because I’m no longer adding domestic pets in teasers. Goal Kick predictions show that teams play more aggressively away from home than they do at home. They typically hustle and manage time when they are at home, but when they are traveling, they are attempting to pick up a new thing, a thing called Goal Kick Fixed.
Although some coaches and teams will find Goal kick Predictions this more applicable than others, it should provide you some ideas for your analysis and handicapping when deciding which teams to include in a Goal Kick teaser.
Goal Kick in Soccer
Obviously, Goal Kick Tips that cross the three and seven should continue to be the most profitable. But a 2004 or 2005 commercial called “Goal kick in Soccer” warned that it would lead us to “non-basic strategy Goal Kick tips.” Contrary to what you may anticipate, this designation applies to underdogs +4.5 to +5.5, not just any goal kick prediction that deviates from the primary strategy model.
Since the start of the 2006 season through Week 10 of the 2010 NFL season, all underdogs with odds between +4.5 and +5.5 have won 88 of 32 Goal Kicks in Soccer, or 73.33%. Do not mistakenly believe that this is data mining. After being back tested in 2005 and found to be profitable, this Goal kick Tip was identified in 2006. I have since tracked it and monitored it, and it has been successful.
Simple observation: previous goal kick predictions have been difficult for home underdogs +4.5 to +5.5. Road dogs +4.5 to +5.5 have dominated since 2006, going 68-17 (80.00%).
Sports message boards are filled with a lot of pointless information, like a Bicycle Kick. There is a popular belief that goal kick fixed predictions that are greater than zero are the worst teasers. Don’t correct them if you hear someone else say it; instead, make the most of the opportunity while it lasts. At 5Dimes, two teams six point “ties win” goal kick fixed teasers cost -105, while 6.5 point “ties win” teasers cost -115. It would make sense to predict that both strong -3.5 road favorites and strong -3 road favorites will win in ties. For a blind goal kick bet, the first example, 64-24 (72.73%) since 2006, is sufficient. The decision for the second option basically comes down to this: If the hand is good enough to warrant a straight wager, it is definitely preferable to tease if you have a goal kick fixed match to support it with.
The same math we covered before in this piece is relevant for college goal kick fixed matches. To beat a straight bet at -105, a three-team teaser at +180 needs to increase the goal kick odds that the legs will win by 19.73%. The goal kick tips we made in this piece about “basic strategy teasers,” “Bill the officer teasers,” “crossing the zero with double threes,” etc. are not used in college football. In fact, it is rare in college football for six points to ever increase the goal kick fixed matches win rate by 19.73%, even when crossing the 3 and 7. One of the few exceptions to this rule is when there are goal kick fixed matches with low totals.
Penalty Kick Soccer
A second industry insider’s tip is that I visit Bookmaker.eu when there is only one NFL game worth betting on a given week. The bookmaker provides basketball and football teasers, Penalty kick Soccer teasers, placing the basketball base at 5 points and the football base at 6. Compared to the ordinary, this offers substantially superior goal kick odds. To maximize the worth of that one goal kick fixed match, I’ll combine it with an NBA teaser leg, crossing as many of the most valuable NBA points as I can (Points 4-10). Due to the fact that Bookmaker only offers +160 on three teamers, this strategy only applies to two team mixed goal kick predictions at -110. (5 point NBA, 6 point NFL).
The bulk of future goal kick bets are placed by sports fans who want to cheer on their preferred team or player throughout the entire season. Professional players avoid this wager due to the significant juice included in the lines. Don’t confuse the motivation; many bookies would kill for the chance to compete on futures. With 32 potential outcomes for which team will win the Super Bowl, it is challenging for the bookmaker to balance the goal kick odds.
Any Cinderella run by preseason underdogs will give a bookmaker an ulcer, and if one of these teams wins the championship, the season’s earnings will be greatly, if not entirely, reduced. Even if these runs are rare and bookmakers do profit from futures, they still need to take safety procedures. Las Vegas bookies increase their future goal kick fixed matches by 40–70% to protect themselves.
Football Free Kick
When using “basic strategy,” “Football free kick” strategy (my -3 to +3 ties win), or when performing your own analysis that involves “capping the market,” wait until 30 minutes before the start of the game to place your blind teaser goal kick bets. The most successful and influential professional gamblers’ current estimation of the game’s actual possibility is reflected in the goal kick betting lines. To understand why, read our essay on the current goal kick betting market. Use caution when handling your money is our final piece of advice. Goal Kick predictions frequently have seven- to eight-week winning streaks, which gives gamblers an excessive amount of confidence.
Then follows that terrible week when everything goes wrong. In week eight of 2010, the majority of people experienced a close call. If you use caution, put reasonable goal kick bets, increase your bankroll, and concurrently protect it, you can make a lot of money goal kick betting teasers.
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